Figure 5d,e show a shift in the PDF of R99p over Europe both within the observed record and between historical and future CMIP5 simulations. The shift of the PDF is particularly strong for the most extreme events taking place in regions with historically high R99p, whereas for the observations there is a small reduction in R99p in regions of low extreme precipitation. In the observations, the PDF therefore widens for the recent period compared to the reference period, whereas for the multi-model mean the PDFs mostly have a more similar shape. The future R99p changes under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario are much larger than in the historical simulations, consistent with their much larger surface temperature changes. Overall, the shift in the PDF towards higher values of total precipitation from extreme events is clearly seen in both observations and climate models.